After months of negotiations, an agreement remains elusive for the release of the remaining funds from Greece’s 2012 bailout by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Indeed, the quotations at left from three key participants on just one day last week reflect how far apart Greece is from its creditors.
Until this month, the base case of many analysts and strategists was for an eventual agreement, even though no one had offered a clear road map on how to get there. In our view, such optimism suggested that these observers were overlooking the facts on the ground.